Quantitative Analysis of Immigration in France (2010–2025)
1.1 Migration Flows
The dataset on asylum requests from the Ministry of the Interior was cleaned to isolate first asylum applications filed through the GUDA system . The analysis showed a clear fluctuation in the number of asylum seekers. Applications increased between 2018 and 2019, fell sharply in 2020 because of border closures during the COVID-19 pandemic, and gradually recovered between 2021 and 2023 before slightly declining in 2024.
These results demonstrate that migration flows are cyclical rather than linear. They depend on international crises rather than on domestic political will. The idea of a constant, uncontrollable influx of migrants is not supported by the data.
1.2 Migration Control
A similar process was applied to the dataset on forced removals. The analysis focused on the category “Total éloignements forces”. The number of removals increased steadily from 2014 to 2019, reached a peak just before the pandemic, and then dropped by half in 2020. It started to rise again between 2021 and 2024, though not to pre-pandemic levels.
This evolution shows that the state’s capacity to control irregular immigration is sensitive to global conditions, such as international mobility restrictions, rather than to purely national policy decisions. Control is not absent, but it is variable and constrained.
1.3 Territorial Distribution of Immigrants
The Ministry of Interior dataset on the share of immigrants by department was used to visualize how the immigrant population is distributed across France. After cleaning the data and extracting departmental codes and percentages, the analysis revealed strong geographical disparities. The highest proportions of immigrants were found in overseas departments, particularly Mayotte and Guyane, as well as in the Paris region.
This concentration indicates that immigration in France is highly localized rather than widespread. It challenges political claims that suggest an “invasion” across the entire national territory. Instead, immigration is concentrated in specific economic and historical regions.
1.4 Demographic Composition
The dataset on the origin of immigrants was used to identify the main source regions. After converting the figures to comparable scales, the analysis showed that North African countries - Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia - remain the main sources of immigration, followed by other African countries and Southern Europe (Portugal, Italy, Spain). Asian and Turkish immigrants constitute smaller but stable proportions.
These results reflect long-term historical and post-colonial ties rather than new or sudden inflows. Immigration to France has therefore been continuous and structured over decades, not explosive or unpredictable.
1.5 Socio-Economic Participation
The INSEE Employment Survey was used to measure the labor force participation of immigrants, descendants of immigrants, and non-immigrants. The dataset was imported into Colab, cleaned by skipping the first three rows, and restricted to the overall “In_Total” column representing the general participation rate. Column names were translated into English, and group labels were standardized before creating a bar chart.
The results show that immigrants have a participation rate of 70%, descendants of immigrants 67%, and non-immigrants 74%. The national average is 73%. The difference between immigrants and non-immigrants is therefore about four percentage points.
This indicates that immigrants participate substantially in the labor market. Their slightly lower rate does not suggest economic dependence but rather the existence of structural obstacles, such as limited access to stable employment or recognition of qualifications. The data thus contradict the idea that immigration represents a financial or social burden.
Discussion
The five analyses are coherent and complementary. They describe a consistent pattern in which immigration in France is neither chaotic nor marginal. Migration flows fluctuate according to global events. The state maintains control mechanisms whose effectiveness depends on international conditions. Immigrants are not evenly spread across the territory but tend to settle in specific regions, often shaped by colonial and economic histories. The composition of immigrant populations is stable, reflecting long-term mobility from North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Southern Europe. Finally, labor market data show that immigrants are economically active and contribute to the national economy almost as much as the rest of the population.
Together, these findings provide a nuanced answer to the research question. They show that the right-wing narrative of an uncontrollable, costly immigration is not supported by quantitative evidence. At the same time, the left-wing idea of seamless integration is only partially true, since structural inequalities remain. The empirical data place reality between these two ideological positions.
Conclusion
The quantitative evidence suggests that immigration in France is a stable and cyclical phenomenon rather than a crisis. It is shaped by long-term economic and historical relations rather than by sudden waves. Immigrants are concentrated in specific regions, but they are also active participants in the labor market. Their contribution to the economy contradicts the notion that they “weigh” on the system.
Overall, immigration appears as an ordinary and structural feature of French society rather than a threat or a solution in itself. The data call for a more balanced understanding of immigration, one that goes beyond fear and idealization to recognize the complexity of social and economic integration.